MARKET OUTLOOK

MARKET OUTLOOK: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended little changed on Friday, overcoming a brief dip triggered by a Financial Times report indicating U.S. President Donald Trump was pushing for steep new tariffs on European Union products. The FT report, which said the Trump administration was eyeing a minimum tariff of between 15% and 20% in any deal with the European bloc, sent markets lower before they partly recovered. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been pushed to repeated record highs in recent weeks. A slew of economic data offered mixed signals, including robust retail sales, a rise in consumer inflation, and flat producer prices for June.

Earnings season kicked off this week, giving an opportunity to U.S. corporations to showcase how tariffs were, or were not, affecting their businesses. 3M fell 3.7% after the company said the impact of tariffs will mostly be felt in the second half of the year. Of the 59 S&P 500 companies to first report second-quarter earnings this season, 81.4% have topped Wall Street’s earnings expectations, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data.

Charles Schwab (SCHW) was among the latest on Friday, advancing 2.9% after posting higher profits. Regions Financial (RF) jumped 6.1% after raising its forecasts for 2025 interest income.

The week has shown, though, that beating estimates is not a recipe for trading higher. American Express outpaced second-quarter profit estimates, but its shares dropped 2.3%. Netflix (NFLX) fell 5.1% despite the success of "Squid Game" helping the company surpass earnings forecasts. The streaming company also lifted its annual revenue outlook. BNP’s Boutle said while not all individual stocks popped from earnings, the broader market has continued to grind higher. More meaningful market gains could come, he added, should some major companies deliver blowout numbers.

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: MSCI’s global equity index advanced slightly while U.S. Treasury yields dipped and Wall Street equities were barely changed on Friday as investors waited for corporate earnings and monitored the latest U.S. tariff threats while they digested a mixed economic picture. U.S. consumer sentiment improved in July and inflation expectations declined, but households still saw substantial risk of price pressures increasing

Another report showed U.S. single-family homebuilding dropped to an 11-month low in June as high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty hindered home purchases, suggesting residential investment contracted again in the second quarter. On Thursday, news of stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and a drop in jobless claims suggested modest improvements in economic activity and helped push the S&P500 and Nasdaq to record closing highs.

In government bonds, U.S. Treasuries prices rose, dragging their yields lower, after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller pushed for a rate cut later this month, while technical buying also contributed to the move higher. In contrast, most officials who have spoken publicly have indicated a desire to hold rates steady and traders are betting on a 95.3% probability that rates will stay where they are after the month-end meeting

The 2 YEAR NOTE yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 4.4 basis points to 3.873%, from 3.917% late on Thursday. In commodities, crude oil futures held steady as mixed U.S. economic news offset worries the European Union’s latest sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine could reduce oil supplies.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: BUYERS SEEM TO BE DEFENDING 6315 VERY WELL AS OF NOW. THERE IS A SMALL BULLFLAG / FALLING WEDGE DEVELOPING.

TRADE SETUP: SUNDAY NIGHT OPEN IM LOOKING FOR A 2UP TRIGGER ABOVE 6336

STOP LOSS: 6333.25

Stoch rsi is in buyer zone so I’m looking for longs on 2up or 3up triggers.

A candle open above 6336 puts in a 1hr 2up which also puts in a 2-1-2 combo.

My key levels are target areas: 6339.50

6350.50 major target, there are equal highs sitting just above.

We are closed out at a POC (point of control) on VP. There are also high volume nodes in that area.

As of now the markets range last week was from 6339- 6324

Lows were faded back to POC and higher volume node area for that session.

(Buyers longed 6324 to get back to 6334)

Highs were faded to POC and higher volume node area for that session.

(Sellers shorted 6339.75 low volume node area back to POC)

It was a ping pong session. We will see what tonight brings.

Some key takeaways:

High Volume Nodes (HVNs) = price acceptance , chop & balance

Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) = price rejection , breakouts or fades

POC (Point of Control) = magnet for rotations & returns

Range vs. Trend,

If price is trading inside a HVN ,expect balance. Fade the edges.

If price breaks out and starts building value outside?

You’re in price discovery. Ride the trend to the next HVN or LVN.

If we break above 6339 tonight next target area would be my key level @ 6350.50 which also has High volume nodes sitting there

HOWEVER IF WE BREAK UNDER 6324 WE COULD START PUSHING DOWN TO 6315 WHICH IS A PDH AND A KEY LEVEL IF NO BONCE WE GO TO 6295